Bitcoin Treasury Companies – My Hopes And Fears

Bitcoin Treasury Companies are on the rise as firms add BTC to their balance sheets. This trend could lead to mainstream adoption and new financial services like BTC-based lending. However, there’s a risk if markets turn bearish. Companies may dump their holdings, triggering investor panic and stock sell-offs. Similar to the FTX collapse, this could spark a cascade effect and crash Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin treasury companies have emerged as a significant force in the financial world, with 69 public companies now holding 720,898 bitcoins valued at $69.6 billion. The corporate Bitcoin treasury strategy has grown faster than expected – last November alone, seven public companies revealed their plans to add Bitcoin to their reserves.

Early adopters have seen remarkable results. MicroStrategy’s bitcoin strategy, launched in August 2020, has yielded an incredible 2,974.8% total return. This performance ranks them as the third-best-performing stock in the Russell 3000. We’re witnessing a radical shift in corporate treasury management as more companies adopt bitcoin ownership.

Let me share my hopes and fears about this growing Bitcoin treasury movement in this piece.

Why companies are adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets

Bitcoin Balance Sheet

Companies are rushing to add Bitcoin to their balance sheets due to a perfect mix of economic worries, smart positioning, and proven results.

Bitcoin’s predictable supply schedule appeals strongly to corporate treasuries. Unlike central banks, which print money freely, Bitcoin adheres to a fixed path until approximately 2140. This certainty catches the eye of smart executives who worry about their currency losing value.

There’s another reason: the success stories of those who jumped in early. Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) changed from a software company into a bitcoin powerhouse with over 580,000 bitcoins worth more than $62 billion. Their stock shot up 500% last year while bitcoin climbed 130%. These returns make corporate leaders take notice quickly.

Additionally, Bitcoin treasuries attract tech-focused investors. SolarBank made this clear when it rolled out its Bitcoin strategy, saying it connects them with “tech-savvy investors.” Growing companies see value beyond just holding Bitcoin through this extra attention.

More public companies are owning Bitcoin as prices climb, with 114 listed companies now holding the cryptocurrency, up from 89 in early April 2025. Bitcoin’s price jumped almost 50% during this time, from about $75,000 to a record high of nearly $112,000.

What I hope will happen with Bitcoin treasuries

Bitcoin Treasury Companies

Bitcoin treasury companies could usher in a new era of financial state-of-the-art that benefits everyone, not just large institutions. The numbers tell an impressive story – 126 public companies now hold 819,857 BTC, nearly 4% of the total supply. This marks just the beginning of what lies ahead.

The recent accounting changes are expected to accelerate adoption significantly. Companies can now mark Bitcoin up and down under FASB fair value accounting rules, effective as of December 2024. Traditional businesses are more welcome to join the movement, thanks to these changes and the approval of Bitcoin ETFs.

Companies might soon monetize their Bitcoin treasuries through innovative financial services. Bitcoin-backed lending is projected to grow faster, reaching $45 billion by 2030, up from $8.6 billion today. This creates opportunities for companies to generate yield while keeping their holdings intact.

Blockchain-powered financial services built on Bitcoin treasuries could transform cross-border payments completely. These markets would function more effectively with reduced transaction times and lower costs. Unbanked populations might access financial tools for the first time.

Blockchain’s inherent transparency adds another dimension, as it “offers an unprecedented level of transparency, allowing all parties involved in a transaction to access the same information in real-time.” This transparency could restore people’s faith in our financial system after years of decline.

What I fear could go wrong

Bitcoin Treasury Worries

The explosive growth of Bitcoin treasury companies creates substantial risks that keep me up at night. The current digital world makes me worry about the sustained bear market’s impact.

Companies face real danger by using leverage to buy Bitcoin. Bitcoin Treasuries data shows over 230 companies currently hold approximately 820,540 BTC. These companies copy Strategy’s approach through leveraged funding. Their model creates systemic risks because they raise capital by issuing convertible bonds to purchase crypto. This could force them to sell Bitcoin to service debt.

This situation bears a striking resemblance to the FTX collapse. FTX’s bankruptcy sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency market, resulting in billions of dollars in losses. The market lost $152 billion in value across 15 major cryptocurrencies within 3 days. Major Bitcoin treasury companies’ liquidity crises could trigger similar contagion effects.

The overvaluation of Bitcoin treasury stocks raises serious concerns. Strategy’s market capitalization reached $71.2 billion by the end of 2024, while its net asset value stood at $43.72 billion. This shows a 63 percent overvaluation. Investors pay much more to own Bitcoin through a Strategy stock than direct cryptocurrency purchases.

New Bitcoin treasury companies remain untested in bear markets. Max Keiser observed that Michael Saylor survived previous downturns while continuing to accumulate BTC. However, “it is foolish to think the new Bitcoin Treasury Strategy clones will have the same discipline”.

Standard Chartered projects that Bitcoin falling below $90,000 would put half of companies’ Bitcoin treasuries underwater. Recent price declines have already affected new investors who joined during the rally past $100,000. This could trigger widespread selling.

The market faces potential contagion where falling Bitcoin prices force companies to sell. Stock prices would drop, investor confidence would weaken, and the cycle would speed up. Another crypto winter might follow.

So, Is the Future of Bitcoin Treasury Companies a Boom or a Bust?

bitcoin risks

Bitcoin treasury strategies amaze me as one of the most remarkable shifts in corporate finance over the past decades. Companies have started to rethink their traditional reserve management approaches in ways nobody imagined before.

The numbers tell a compelling story. MicroStrategy achieved a remarkable 2,974.8% return, while 126 public companies now own almost 4% of all Bitcoin. This shift has gained momentum following FASB’s accounting changes, which have made Bitcoin more attractive on corporate balance sheets.

The risk of leveraged positions keeps me up at night. A long Bitcoin bear market could push many treasury strategies underwater. Companies might panic-sell their holdings, triggering a similar cascade to the one we witnessed after FTX’s collapse. The domino effect begins with Bitcoin’s price drop, leads to company selloffs, and culminates in falling stock prices and shattered investor confidence.

Notwithstanding that, the upside remains attractive. Bitcoin-backed lending, improved cross-border payments, and blockchain transparency could give rise to new business models. These breakthroughs might help include populations that traditional financial systems left behind.

Your risk tolerance shapes how you view companies with Bitcoin treasuries. These organizations bet on Bitcoin’s long-term value against traditional currencies. The future will reveal if they were pioneers or warnings to others. Bitcoin treasury strategies have altered the corporate finance map, but the outcome remains uncertain.

 

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